| Highlights of DAWN | December 1980 |
Population, Resources, and War
APPROXIMATELY four billion people now inhabit the earth. On the basis of the current rate of growth, there will be eight billion people by the year 2010 and sixteen billion by 2045. Allowing for a probable decrease in fertility, most experts regard a world population of twelve to fifteen billion as a certainty by the year 2060.
A number of studies have endeavored to establish how many people the earth can support, considering present limitations of land, water, and energy. Scientists, in their most optimistic estimate, have concluded that the absolute maximum number of people our globe can support is roughly fifteen billion, which is the number that we are foreordained to have by 2060.
The law of diminishing returns, however, is especially applicable to agriculture. For example, as a general rule doubling output requires increasing tenfold the energy subsidy to a crop. This energy must be in the form of mechanical equipment, irrigation facilities, pesticides, and constant application of fertilizer. Taking these and other factors into account, most ecologists and food experts believe that we would be doing very well to support one person for each acre of arable land. (E.P. Odum, T.H. Odum 1971) Since there are now at most eight billion acres of potentially arable land, the maximum conceivable population we could support with a world-wide, high-technology, and high-energy subsidy type of agriculture production, appears to be eight billion people living on a cereal diet. We are expected to reach this number by 2010.
It is not difficult to forecast what will happen as governments begin to feel the intense internal pressure from their people. Especially the underdeveloped and overpopulated countries will be forced to endeavor to improve their lot. A miniature example of this very circumstance already has occurred between two grossly overpopulated Central American countries—El Salvador and Honduras. El Salvador had a population of approximately 160 people per ¾ of a square mile, while Honduras had a population of only 22 per ¾ of a square mile. The result was that over 300,000 Salvadorans moved into Honduras in search of land and jobs. The ultimate result was a brief war, which was ended by the Organization of American States. The acknowledged cause of the conflict was population pressure. (Population Bulletin, Dec. 1969)
With the increase of population comes an increase in the growth of industry, and with this, of course, a greater and greater demand for raw materials. The industrialized nations are rapidly depleting their own reserves of raw materials, and they are looking to the underdeveloped countries to supply this need. The drain of natural resources causes an increasing disparity within the industrialized countries in per capita wealth. It is not surprising, therefore, that we see these less developed countries becoming more desirous of sharing in the profits from the processing of these materials. This might mean becoming industrialized themselves, or charging higher prices for their resources. The latter option is the course taken by OPEC.
It seems inevitable that, in the long run, as the competition for raw materials increases and the supply diminishes, there will come a time when the small undeveloped countries will build considerable “commodity power.” They will, in fact, be in a position to adversely affect the prosperity and growth of the industrialized countries. For example, the effect of high priced oil imports on the economy of the industrialized nations is well-known. But in addition to oil, the United States now imports one hundred percent of its platinum, mica, chromium, and strontium, and over ninety percent of its manganese, aluminum, tantalum, and cobalt, and fifty percent or more of twelve additional key minerals. (Wade 1974)
The success of the oil cartel is a signal that from now on wealth and power will begin to flow in the opposite direction. But only the relatively few underdeveloped countries possess sufficient amounts of resources to become powerful—and richer. The balance of the “have not” nations will become poorer and more distressed. It thus appears that the old confrontation between the rich nations and the poor nations will be replaced by a threefold division: the rich, the hopelessly poor, and the “nouveau riche.” Such a major change in the international order is bound to create extreme tensions. (W. Ophuls)
Politicians and national leaders, when endeavoring to cope with these problems, still consider war or the threat of war, as a continuation of politics by another means. In times past, before the hydrogen bomb, this might have been a viable choice. But with the advent of nuclear weapons, this can no longer be considered a rational option.
In the decade following the Second World War the United States was in the unique position of being the sole possessor of atomic weapons. But soon other nations acquired nuclear capabilities, especially Russia, and the relationship between nations changed. The policy that has evolved, especially on the part of the super powers, is to attain and maintain superiority in nuclear strength, or at least a balance of power, so that a state of mutually assured destruction will prevail. It is hoped that by this balance of terror peace will be maintained. But the conclusion seems inevitable that if nations continue to build and distribute nuclear arms, World War III is certain to occur.
At a recent Cambridge Forum panel discussion by faculty members of the Harvard-MIT Arms Control Seminar, the following opinions were voiced by internationally known experts: “Nuclear war in some form is likely before the end of this century.
“It will probably occur as the direct result of a proliferation of nuclear weaponry. The more people who have such weapons, the more probable their use.
“Existing political systems and the policies they generate fail to provide curbs on, or alternatives to, the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Nations continue to increase their armories in the name of self-protection.
“To survive in such a world, nations may have to surrender much of their sovereignty. But a new kind of world government would involve the abandonment of many democratic values. Nuclear war is a more likely prospect.
“People are complacent about the threat of nuclear war. We have different fears. The horror of the first atomic bomb explosion is fading from our memories.”
Dr. Thomas Schelling, professor of political economy at Harvard and widely known as an arms strategist, who has been a consultant to the Department of State and Defense and to the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, as well as to several national security research organizations, had this to say in summary of the panel discussion: “I have no confidence that any government—be it a world government, democratic government, or dictatorial government—will be able to cope with the problems of nuclear weapons any better than they can cope with the usual criminal problems in society.” (Harvard Magazine, Nov. 1975)
It seems almost impossible that this juggernaut of self-destruction is thundering down on the human race and virtually no one is paying any attention. Governments are not forthright and candid, because, to endeavor to stem the catastrophe would require changes that ingrained selfishness and pride would not permit. For the first time, really, we can understand the conditions that prevailed at the time of the Flood and why our Lord in his prophecy likened that time to our present day.
The prophecy as stated by Jesus is, But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only. But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. For as in the days that were before the Flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, and knew not until the Flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.” (Matt. 24:36-39) The thought seems to be that the people in Noah’s day were completely oblivious to what was taking place. The preaching by Noah, which was done for the most part by the preparing of the ark, was met by scoffing and disbelief.—Heb. 11:7; II Pet. 3:3
In Genesis the 6th chapter, we are given some of the details of the moral conditions of mankind at the time of the Flood. It is remarkable that in our day we have a literal counterpart both as to morality and disbelief.
The Apostle Paul confirms the attitude of the world just before they are engulfed in the fast approaching climactic time of trouble. “For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.” (I Thess. 5:3) As an aftermath of the First World War, the League of Nations proclaimed that the objectives necessary for peace had been won. The two principal tenets of the League were the preservation of peace and the improvement of human welfare. These lofty aims engendered the hope for peace in the minds of many people. But its dismal failure dashed these hopes, and sudden (or unexpected) destruction came upon the nations as travail upon a woman. And as a woman’s pains in travail get more frequent and severe as the time progresses, so has the world’s travail become more frequent and intense.
In another prophecy concerning our time, our Lord said, “And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.” (Luke 21:25,26) The reference to the sun, moon, and stars is to the ecclesiastical powers of this earth which are ruled by Satan, “the prince of the power of the air.” (Eph. 2:2) The nations are indeed suffering distress with perplexity. The sea and waves in the Bible are symbols of the restless masses of humanity. In Isaiah 57:20 we read, “But the wicked are like the troubled sea, when it cannot rest, whose waters cast up mire and dirt.” The people, observing the massive world-wide “armaments for peace,” are fearful of the things that are certain to come upon the earth.
This would portend a bleak and hopeless future were it not for the wonderful words of Jesus: “For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for [by] the elect’s sake those days shall be shortened.” (Matt. 24:21,22) In verse 22 the Greek word “dia” is translated for, but a better translation is by the elect. We, who appreciate that the world events and the prophecies of the Bible point to the certainty of an imminent climactic time of trouble, are especially grateful for this text. It gives us the wonderful assurance that the Heavenly Father, through the instrumentality of Christ and his church, will bring the trouble to an end before it evolves into a time of cataclysmic destruction.
It will be at this time that the long-promised kingdom for which we have been taught to pray, “Thy kingdom come. Thy will be done, as in heaven, so in earth,” (Luke 11:2) will be established and the many crooked things that plague the earth today will be made straight.—Luke 3:5
One of the beautiful prophecies concerning this kingdom is found in Isaiah 25:6-9. It states, “And in this mountain shall the Lord of hosts make unto all people a feast of fat things, a feast of wines on the lees … well refined.” In the Bible a mountain pictures a kingdom, and the text is saying that in this long-promised kingdom God will provide an abundance of material things. There will no longer be the fear of deprivation or starvation for some people, for his arrangements are for all people.
Verse 7 of the prophecy reads, “And he will destroy in this mountain the face of the covering cast over all people, and the veil that is spread over all nations.” The god of this world, Satan, has blinded the minds of the people and they have not been able to discern the true and living God, to know of his love and his beneficent plan of salvation. This cannot be corrected until the kingdom is established, and one of its first provisions implemented—the binding of Satan. (Rev. 20:2,3) This is done, the Scriptures tell us, so that he can “deceive the nations no more.” It is then that the knowledge of the Lord will fill the earth as the waters cover the sea. (Isa. 11:9) It is then that the people will turn to the Lord and gladly accept and live by his precepts. It is then that the nations will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither will they learn war any more.—Mic. 4:3
In verse 8 of Isaiah 25 the prophecy continues: “He will swallow up death in victory; and the Lord God will wipe away tears from off all faces; and the rebuke of his people shall he take away from off all the earth: for the Lord hath spoken it.” It is then that the adamic curse will be lifted from the human race and all who have ever drawn the breath of life will be brought back in the resurrection and given a real first opportunity for life. Not only will adamic death be done away with, but also all of the ailments and sorrows that mark the dying process.
It is then that the people of earth will cry with one resounding voice, “Lo, this is our God; we have waited for him.”—Isa. 25:9